Weekly Commentary: The Timely War?

2006-07-13

Aaron Lerner

Assuming that the Olmert team doesn't blink (or perhaps more accurately, that Hezbollah continues to create a situation that makes blinking domestic political suicide) there is a genuine chance that Israel may actually succeed in ridding itself of a dangerous threat to the Jewish State before circumstances make such a move considerably more expensive.

Today Iran has no nuclear bomb. Egypt is neither lead by a radical Islamic regime nor does Egypt's leadership appear to feel compelled to divert public attention from its current domestic difficulties via an open clash with Israel. Ditto for Jordan.

Add to this that since Israel has yet to retreat from most of the West Bank thus apparently leaving its most populous central area out of immediate massive rocket exposure (with a national budget not yet burdened with the debt such a retreat would cost) and it can certainly be said that Hezbollah has picked a good time for a mini-war for Israel.

And what if, indeed, Mr. Olmert declines to blink and then goes on to apply the same newly found intestinal fortitude to the challenge he faces today in the Gaza Strip?

Will the episode then give him the credibility to push through his retreat plan or, alternatively, will it be seen as evidence of the folly of retreat?

Regardless of how ideal the outcome, Mr. Olmert's spin team can certainly be counted on to try to achieve the former.

Far fetched?

Hardly.

Thanks to Israel's then considerably greater strategic depth at the time of the horrific surprise Yom Kippur War of 1973 and a generous serving of good fortune, it was able to absorb the devastating opening invading attacks and ultimately conclude the war 101 kilometers from Cairo and on the road to Damascus.

One would think that the experience of the Yom Kippur War would be seen as proof positive that retreat is a mistake, but retreat proponents point to Israel's ultimate victory in '73 as some kind of proof of the IDF's invincibility regardless of the opening conditions.

One can only hope that Israel will soon find itself focused on debating the lessons of its victory in the conflict now unfolding.

Source: IMRA – Independent Media Review and Analysis