Weekly Commentary: 7 Questions For The New Olmert Administration

2006-03-30

Aaron Lerner

With our national elections behind us, Acting Prime Minister Ehud Olmert faces important challenges and questions.

Here are a few:

1. Arrangements at the Rafah crossing point between Egypt and the Gaza Strip are a farce, with the Palestinians not only responsible for inspections but also having the last word as to who and what can pass. This was irresponsible when Fatah controlled the PA and with Hamas in charge it is farcical.

Will Israel insist on changes in the arrangements to prevent smuggling into Gaza?

2. Israel has yet to come up with an effective response to the short range low payload Qassam rockets that have been fired almost daily from Gaza into Israel and to make matters worse, the considerably more accurate and higher payload/longer range Katyushas have already made their appearance in the Gaza Strip. The higher payload makes the rockets considerably more dangerous and the longer range can render the "no entry zone" at the northern edge of the Gaza Strip irrelevant since the Katyushas can strike a large number of key Israeli targets from deep within heavily populated Palestinian areas.

Will Israel address this challenge now with action or continue its "talk loudly and carry a small stick" policy?

Will Israel revise its rules of engagement in order to deny the Palestinian rocket teams the sanctuary they enjoy from human shields?

3. The Palestinians have enjoyed considerable success in their public relations battle to force Israel to operate the Karni Crossing despite terror threats - and the availability of safer alternative crossing points (including Kerem Shalom).

Will Israel do its PR "homework" - with photo ops, briefings and other activities at Kerem Shalom and elsewhere and stick to its guns on the issue so that it can get the upper hand?

4. Hamas now controls an armed and trained infantry force numbering in the many tens of thousands (various official PA security forces equipped with automatic assault rifles as well as other equipment).

Will Israel announce and enforce a policy to address this threat? For example, a "no rifle" rule enforced by a no-nonsense shoot to kill policy against anyone seen holding a rifle?

5. Mr. Olmert has termed his retreat plan to be a retreat to internationally recognized "final borders".

What is to be considered "international recognition"? A UN resolution following up on 242 proclaiming that the retreat, if carried out to the predetermined lines, fulfils 242's call for withdrawal to "secure and recognized borders"?

What if the international community insists on the caveat that the retreat lines are "interim borders", with the "final borders" to be ultimately established in the future via negotiations with the Palestinians?

6. During the election campaign Mr. Olmert declined to publicly counter remarks by senior security personalities in Kadima such as Dichter and Ezra that Israeli forces would remain deployed in the evacuated areas of the West Bank even after the Jewish communities are bulldozed.

What if the international community takes the position that while it is happy to see Jewish communities in the West Bank bulldozed that the "pay-off" of recognized "final borders" requires also pulling the army out?

7. Mr. Olmert said that the retreat would be to lines that enjoyed the broad support of the Israeli public.

Would that "broad support" be tested via national referendum?

There are, of course, many more questions.

But this is a good start.

Source: IMRA – Independent Media Review and Analysis