DM Mofaz Wants Large Retreat In Wake Of Hamas Victory

2006-01-31

[IMRA: When Ehud Olmert campaigned for retreat from Gaza he conceded that he was clueless as to who or what would fill in the void, arguing that it didn't matter. Now DM Mofaz takes this a step further, intending to retreat with the full knowledge that the void will be filled by a sovereign Hamas state that makes no bones about its goals and is already demonstrating the political/PR savvy needed to pursue them.]

Mofaz allows for unilateral W. Bank withdrawal

Amos Harel

Haaretz

www.haaretz.com/ hasen/spages/ 676678.html

Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz says Hamas' election victory gives Israel an incentive to decide in favor of a unilateral withdrawal from the West Bank. He believes such a decision will be made within a year. Mofaz thinks the diplomatic picture will become clear by the end of the year. If it seems certain that there is no Palestinian negotiating partner, then Israel will have to set new, defensible borders for itself.

These positions, which have not been made public, bring Mofaz closer to the line taken by Kadima, his party.

In his speech last Tuesday at the Herzliya Conference, the day before the Palestinian elections, Acting Prime Minister Ehud Olmert avoided talking explicitly about another withdrawal in the West Bank.

"We would prefer an agreement," Olmert said. "If our expected partners in the negotiations under the road map do not uphold their commitments, we will preserve Israeli interests in every way."

Mofaz believes that with Hamas leading the Palestinian Authority, it will be impossible to return to the road map. Israel will have to forge an alternative route based on a broad national consensus of the need to ensure Israel's Jewish and democratic nature, with a significant Jewish majority. It will include a new map, based on a united Jerusalem; reinforcing the settlement blocs and retaining the Jordan Valley; and territorial concessions (giving up isolated settlements) in order to maintain the demographic advantage.

Mofaz believes that such arrangements will be easier for Israel, will garner international support and serve as a better base for eventually renewing negotiations. Still, Mofaz is wary of calling these measures a unilateral withdrawal, instead terming them a "move of national consensus."

Mofaz has in recent days voiced objections to the idea, supported by Olmert, of freezing Israel's payments to the PA. Aides to the defense minister say that without the funds, the PA will face collapse. Part of the PA's current economic crisis has been attributed to Fatah's election economics during the campaign period, including a near-50 percent salary hike for government employees.

In general, Mofaz believes that Israel must take a step-by-step approach with the new PA government. He views the coming months as a transition period in which Israeli-Palestinian relations will be reshaped in light of the expected formation of a Hamas government. Mofaz think that Hamas will seek to appoint as ministers people who are not directly associated with the organization in order to reduce international pressure on the PA and to maintain a line of communication with Israel.

Mofaz brushes off criticism of the intelligence services for failing to predict Hamas' victory. Like MK Yuval Steinitz (Likud), chairman of the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, Mofaz thinks the Shin Bet came closest to successfully forecasting the election results.

Source: IMRA – Independent Media Review and Analysis