U.S. Warning Allies Of Hamas Takeover Of Palestinian Authority

2005-10-09

Geostrategy-Direct

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Bush officials and congressional sources said the administration has been quietly bracing for a Hamas takeover of the PA. State Department officials have been briefing Arab and Western allies about the prospect that Hamas would dominate either the Palestinian government or PA areas by mid-2006.

"There is a very serious risk that unless we make much more progress on the peace process than I now think is likely, that regardless of Hamas we may see the Islamists take over there," Anthony Cordesman, a senior researcher at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told the House Armed Services Committee on Sept. 28. "And while they're not Islamist extremists of the kind [Al Qaida chief Osama] Bin Laden is, the broader this alliance is, the more dangerous it is."

[On Sept. 30, Hamas was reported to have won more than 20 percent in municipal elections in the West Bank. The ruling Fatah movement was said to have won 60 percent of the vote.]

The administration has determined that PA Chairman Mahmoud Abbas will not be able to stop Hamas's bid for power. Officials said Abbas has lost control and failed to reform the economy, government or the security forces.

"Their [PA security forces'] ability to crack down on group like Hamas is limited to put it mildly and perhaps nonexistent," Daniel Byman, director of Center for Peace and Security Studies at Georgetown University, told the House Armed Services Committee hearing. Administration officials said Abbas is one of the few members of the PA who values an alliance with the United States. But they acknowledge that the PA chairman has failed to translate his calls for democracy and reform into action.

"This is one of the most substantial and difficult challenges of the current leadership of the Palestinian Authority," said Assistant Secretary of State David Welch. "They have been in office for nine months and they have a focus in tackling the issues of corruption and law and order."

During a Sept. 20 meeting, the Quartet - officials from the European Union, Russia, the United Nations and the United States - discussed a Hamas takeover of the PA. Officials said the Quartet, which plans to allocate $3 billion to the PA over the next three years, concluded that the international community could not prevent such a prospect. "How do you deal with this question of the role of armed groups and militias in this political process?" asked Welch, who attended the Quartet meeting. His comments were made to a House International Relations subcommittee hearing on Sept. 21.

The prospect of a Hamas takeover of a Western-funded PA has alarmed Congress. Members of the House subcommittee on the Middle East and Central Asia, who have been receiving frequent closed-door briefings on the decline of the PA, warned that Hamas could eventually use Western funding and weapons to fight the United States.

"What are we going to do to preclude that from occurring?" asked Rep. Thaddeus McCotter. "My nightmare is what if all the security assistance and training would be run by them [Hamas]? My concern is that we are staring at Weimar Germany."

Under U.S. law, Washington would be unable to deal with any foreign government controlled by groups deemed by the State Department to be terrorists.

Hamas and Islamic Jihad have been designated terrorist organizations, and the former intends to run in elections for the Palestinian Legislative Council in January 2006.

"Hamas has already been in government in the Palestinian Authority," Welch said. "Under American law, we can't deal with them. I don't see that law changing after January."

Still, neither Congress nor the administration plans to offer an alternative to the current PA leadership. Officials and congressional sources said that despite growing PA instability, the United States did not have any near-term alternative to Abbas.

"Let's be honest," said Rep. Gary Ackerman, a senior member of the House International Relations Committee. "On its good day, the Palestinian Authority is rife with corruption and riddled with political hacks and thugs. It is never one news cycle away from political emasculation. Yet, this is the horse we're betting on. And truth be told, it's the right bet. There's no one else to bet on."

Source: IMRA – Independent Media Review and Analysis