From the Israel Archives |
Coverage of the Events since October 2000
Hände weg von Israel und Islam!
Amir Oren: What If There Is No Disengagement? [Not Much]
2005-06-28
Haaretz
www.haaretz.com/hasen/ spages/593025.html
... the IDF is also preparing, in light of the opposition, for the possibility of the cancellation of the evacuation; but if it were to admit this, and take appropriate measures, it would look as though it were intervening in the political process. The solution that the top brass have found is stunning in its simplicity: There is no need to make separate plans for what to do if the evacuation is canceled, because anything that is liable to happen then is already within the spectrum of expected scenarios in the fall if the evacuation is carried out.
What will happen if there is no evacuation? The same thing. A little war or a little peace - the IDF is planning for both alternatives, with the evacuation or without it, when the dust settles or if there is no dust. The renewal of terror, which this month has thus far killed seven Israelis, is taken into account before, during and after the evacuation, as is American pressure - there being no Europe - for an immediate continuation of the peace process.
A renewal of fighting in the north is possible, not certain, following the elections and the governments that have arisen in Lebanon and Iran, as a reminder of the connection between an Arab application of force and an Israeli withdrawal, or its cancellation. The blessed disengagement will not win Israel a reduction in pressures, and its cursed cancellation will not be considered a sign of the disintegration of the democratic state of Israel, but rather merely a defeat for its government. The "no" in the French public to the European constitution will be interpreted as Jacques Chirac's failure, not as the end of the road for the Fifth republic. Prime Minister Ariel Sharon is not Israel. He is just a prime minister, who has not learned - yet - to hold proper elections before the minor evacuation, in the footsteps of which will come better, major evacuations.
Source: IMRA – Independent Media Review and Analysis
