Weekly Commentary: The Nightmare Scenario -- In The Absence Of An Israeli Trip Wire

2005-03-17

Aaron Lerner

"Calm until the Palestinians cannot get any more out of Israel via diplomatic means" Israel television Channel One Arab Affairs commentator Oded Granot describing the significance of the Cairo Declaration on the Mabat news broadcast - 17 March 2005

When considered within a time frame measured in days, today's "Cairo Declaration" might be seen as a positive accomplishment for the Egyptians who brokered an understanding that the various Palestinian terror groups won't be shooting for a while. Yet this Egyptian move to provide for not only the preservation but even expansion of these terror group's capabilities may very well turn out in the long run to help supply the match that engulfs the region in a war that so many of our experts are convinced none of the actors really want.

Here is the nightmare scenario:

Palestinian forces in the West Bank and Gaza Strip exploit the "calm for calm" period to develop offensive capabilities that dramatically improve their ability to strike strategic Israeli targets and population centers.

Israel retreats from the Gaza Strip and northern Samaria with a Palestinian "entity" of some sort taking over control by default.

Israel pulls out of the strategic Philadelphi Corridor, thus removing the human Israeli "trip wire" that prevents the movement of Egyptian forces from the Sinai into the Gaza Strip (the thin deployment of Israelis can't physically stop a determined Egyptian move - but their presence has a chilling effect on Egyptian cross border moves since the inevitable Israeli casualties would be a casus belli).

When, as Granot so aptly put it, the Palestinians come to the conclusion that they cannot get any more out of Israel via diplomatic means, they turn to "resistance" with Israel blamed for not being sufficiently generous.

Israel first tries a "tit-for-tat" measured response only to find that it only yields calls for an "end to the cycle of violence" with the leaders of the Palestinian entity pleading weakness to excuse their failure to halt the attacks against Israel while, at the same time, they call for Egyptian assistance.

Israel steps up its operations, warning that the Jewish State is being left no choice but to prepare to embark on a massive clean up operation to restore the "pre-calm" balance.

The Palestinian leadership responds by calling on Egypt to come to the Gaza entity's aid.

In the absence of the Israeli "trip wire" in the Philadelphi Corridor, Egyptian President Mubarak succumbs to pressure from the street to aid the Palestinian Gaza entity.

Instead of an Israeli "trip wire" keeping Egypt out of the Gaza Strip, the Egyptian "human shields" in Gaza act as a "trip wire" that seriously changes the consequences if Israeli operations continue.

And then?

All bets are off.

One thing is certain: the potential for disastrous results is magnitudes greater than it was before Mr. Sharon opened his disengagement Pandora's Box.

Source: IMRA – Independent Media Review and Analysis